Sports Trading UK

Time Decay – The Pillars to Success

 

Any old fool can lay the 0-0 and then trade out when it goes into a green figure. To be fair in the old days this did not used to be a bad strategy as the market used to move pretty much straight away. These days it is a little more complicated as the market can and often does hold.
Anyone with access to this page will have had the PDF that we wrote on the subject. Every strategy in there still works to this day. What I am doing for pro members is expanding on this. The videos in here will be an invaluable source into how to do that but I will also add some comments.
Before I start I will add one final comment. If you choose to share this information and the videos that is up to you. However what this will do is stop us from making more videos and adding to the page. We will know from the number of hits on the page and views of the videos if this is happening. If it does we will not only stop adding to it but take down this page. Anyway enough of that.

Time Decay Match Points

1. Only and idiot will enter time decay on a free flowing game unless the market is moving quickly. What I mean by that is that your risk v reward is just not there. If you are in a time where the market is moving at 1-2 ticks a minute and the game is very attacking DO NOT OPEN. However if the market is flying down then the risk can be worth it. The overall advice on this though is do not open when a game is very open and is showing a lot of goal scoring options.

2. Look for dull points in a game. In any game I have ever seen there are times when the match lacks momentum.  In many games teams go hell for leather for a little while and then it settle down. Good things to watch for here is when the ball seems to be in the middle of the park and the only shots are long range ones.

3. Look for times a goal can’t be scored. If a player in injured then they can’t score, if a substitution is being made a goal can’t be scored. Okay this will not work all the time but once you get to look for these things then you will get better.

4. Free Kicks and Corners. This is the most dangerous sort of time decay. When a team gets a free kick or corner the market often moves upwards. If that comes to nothing there will usually be a very quick spike down. Knowing the teams here is essential; I would not like to be backing unders when Ronaldo is waiting to take a free kick!!!!

Time Decay Market Points

1. Look for times when the market will move quickly. The PDF will help you here as will the videos.

2. Exit a slow moving market unless there is no action in the game. Again refer to the videos on this.

3. The market will always catch up. This is linked to number 2, never be afraid of exiting a market that is not moving. It will always have to catch up giving you chances. Put it this way would you rather lose a little bit of profits you have made or get caught for a big loss?

4. The 1.7 rule. In my experience the unders markets tend to move quite quickly until they hit the 1.7 mark. This is not an exact science but the reason I like to use this theory is that the downside is far less if I get caught.

5. Think outside the box. Two of the initial videos show you other options you can use. Remember any market that is moving quickly is good for time decay. In theory to back the higher they are the quicker they move. Please do not take this an exact science though. The under 2.5 can start at 2.60 and if the people thing there is a goal coming it will not move quickly. However look back to point 3 as the market has to catch up.

6. Look for resistance points in the market. For any horse racing traders out there you will know this one well.  There are a few natural ones such as 2.0 but the market can resist at any time. If the market is resisting always consider coming out.

7. A spike down tends the follow resistance. There is a good example of this in one of the videos.  If the market has held then eventually it will spike down and often very quickly.

Final Notes

1. YOU WILL GET CAUGHT. I have been caught many times and will be again. If you are going to use time decay accept it. Point 2 expands on this.

2. Have the right mentality. A lot of people are scared to death of using time decay for the fear of getting caught. Let me put it another way, when you open a goal requiring strategy such as LTD does it affect you if you don’t get the goal? All you are doing is the reverse when you open time decay. Okay the upside against the downside is lower but if you use the above advice your hit rate should be far better.

3. Time decay can be used to reduce risk; you don’t have to use it to take out all risk. This is what Kev’s cover on the LTD Genesis is all about. When I open it in that situation then I still want a goal. All I am doing is cutting down my overall risk and giving myself something to use in the 2nd half. Give this some thought as it is important, I will add to this subject in future videos.

4. Ying and Yang. As long as you use the right rules there is no real guide to staking. Let’s look at the different styles of Kev and Steve here. Kev sticks a lot in the market and achieves full cover and often more, Steve puts in much less and goes for partial cover. Obviously Kev gets a lot of trades where he has no risk whatsoever but will sometimes hit a big loss on time decay. Steve has a lot of trades where he does not cover all the liabilities but when he gets caught the downside is lower so does not see those occasional big losses. This comes back to your style of trading overall Kev is incredibly aggressive when trading the football, whereas Steve quite often goes for a much more passive approach. Neither is right or wrong. 

5. DO NOT GET GREEDY. This is probably the most important thing and the reason I have left it till last. Apart from a freak goal most of the times I have been caught is when I have got greedy. The market has not been moving and the game is attacking I have just thought okay 3 more ticks will give me full cover on my trade. What difference does a £1 here and there make if you are risking a lot more?