THE NIBBLER

The Nibbler Low (Beta)

This is never going to be a high profit maker; however, it is a safe trade that will always give you a chance to take a reduced red if the trade is going against you. If you get through the first 20 to 25 minutes without a goal, you will always have a green figure available to you. If you do get an early goal, you still have cover on the higher scores, so you can stay with the trade, however there will be a wimp-out option for a small red. The profile of the matches we are looking for is similar to the Villa, however we are mostly looking for games that will feature 0 or 1 goal. If you weigh it properly, you can do it to ensure decent profit on the 2-goal scorelines as well. 3 goals will be a scratch or a small win. 4 goals would result in a loss, but if you trade is properly you should not let it come to that. I have written this up for the members we have here who do not like to use time decay.

Opening bets

Back under 1.5 for £20
Dutch 2-1, 1-2, 2-1 for £10 to £15, depending on what cover you want on the 2.5 scorelines. The more you have the less you will lose if you choose to red up after an early goal, but the less you will win on a good pick.

Options

A small bet of £1 to £2 on the 0-3 and 3-0 scoreline can be worth its weight in gold, particularly on an early goal.
A lay of under 3.5 will give you some cover if you get hit by a glut of goals very quickly and will also give you less red if you choose to close after an early goal.
I tend to use the 3-0 / 0-3 option but not the 3.5 option. THE SAFE WAY TO TRADE THIS IS TO HAVE SOME COVER ON THE 3.5.

Goal in the first 20 minutes

Close the trade - Red up your under 1.5 bet and green up your correct scores. This will give you a small red which will be far less than the red you get if caught on the Villa.

Stay Open

Remember you have profiled this as a low-scoring game, and you do have cover and indeed a profit on the 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1. If you do choose to stay open back the 2-0 or 0-2 to equalise your return and all of your correct scores. You also need to get something on the 3-0 or 0-3. I do not tend to even out the profit on that scoreline as it is unlikely.

No Goal first 20 minutes.

Close the trade - What you will find is the red on the correct scores will be very low, and you will have a decent green on the under 1.5. So green it up and walk away. That is not, however, what this trade was designed for.
Stay Open – So now or in the next 10 minutes, you need to be dutching the 2-0 / 0-2 to equalise your profits on all of the correct scores. In addition, you should look to get a small amount of green on the 3-0 / 0-3.

The reason for getting on the 2-0 / 0-2 now is very simple. By having them on your side, you will always have a greening up option if a goal is scored. Your under 1.5 bet will still show a red, but your scores will show more of a green than the red.
The longer you leave to 2-0 / 0-2 bet, the better price you could potentially get on it, but if there is a goal the 2-0 or 0-2 bet you will have to place will cost you more.

Options for anytime when all your bets are placed.

A lot of the time, if the game is 0-0, I top up my 0-2, 2-0 and 1-1 scoreline. At half-time, you will get a very good price on them. This will be at the expense of your profit on the 2-1 and 1-2, but the sort of games I am using the nibbler low on I only want the 2-1 / 1-2 to cover me.

Anytime the game is 0-0, you can look to get some cover on the 3.5 by laying the under 3.5. This makes it a totally safe trade as you have covered all of the options. It will also give you greening-up options if two goals go in. You can do the same on a one-goal scoreline as well as the game goes on. You don’t even have to fully cover, let's take a game that is 2-1 on or around 75 mins you will be able to close your cs and your 3.5 for a small profit.
Taking your green/red

A winning position on this trade can very quickly turn into a losing one. You have to be mindful in a game that has 2 goals already; another 2 quick ones can give you a full loss before you get a chance to green up. For that reason I will advocate that beginning traders get at least something on the 3.5 market. The nibbler will be safe when I finish it will address this. When you have a game that has 3 goals, my advice most of the time would be to take whatever you have as another goal will give a full loss. This, as ever, is your own choice.

Reasoning

What you will find with this trade is that the longer the trade goes on without a goal the more green you will have. In addition once you are fully open with all the bets, any goal that goes in should still give you a greening option.

Why the Nibbler?

Two reasons, the first being that if used correctly, it should nibble away, giving small, low-risk profits, the second being we nibble away at backing scores as the game goes on.
Nibbler or Villa?
The choice is yours. The Villa will always return more than the nibbler but we all know the risk of the early goal. The nibbler still has a risk, but it's smaller. In addition, the nibbler is less risky to stay in after an early goal.
Picks
It's now over to the master of picks himself to find these. For now, we will probably leave them all as Villa picks and let you choose.

Development

There are many variations that I will be doing on the nibbler. What I want for the group is a selection of trades where time decay is not needed. They will all be low-risk trades as long as you are disciplined about taking reds when you get two very quick goals.