Sports Trading UK

The Ronaldo (beta version)

 

This weekend has really had me thinking. We had 2 cup games and the Real Madrid game that looked absolutely spot on for a Suarez. The problem was the fact that the prices were so damn low. So just how can we make a profit from these games?
The solution was actually staring me in the face based on what we do with the Next Bite. So I started looking yesterday if what I had in mind would work using the two most prolific scoring sides in the main Europe leagues, Real Madrid and Barcelona. The last 15 games featuring Real 12 have been over 2.5 goals, all of those games have also gone over 3.5 goals with an incredible 8 seeing over 4.5 goals.  11 out of the last 15 with Barcelona have seen over 2.5 with 6 of these seeing over 4.5 goals. My interest now was firmly peaked so I looked at the Bundesliga. Dortmund have had 84% over 2.5, 68% over 3.5 and 32% over 4.5. Stuttgart are not that far behind those stats. So I went through some leagues and found similar trends. The Ronaldo was then born.

Opening bets
The idea of this is to be a low risk high return trade. I am going to stake this to what will normally be much less than a £20 loss.
Lay under 3.5 goals for £15
Lay under 4.5 goals for £10

 

Optional cover bet
Dutch 2-1 / 1-2 for enough to leave a scratch if it hits one of those scores. Then in play at 1-0 / 0-1 back the 3-0 or 0-3.

 

Example 1
We have to look at a Real match hence its name.
Granada v Real Madrid
Lay under 3.5 for £15 at 1.85ish. Max risk £12.75
Lay under 4.5 for £10 at 1.37is. Max risk £3.70
Game with 4 goals is £11.30 profit, game with 5 or more £25 profit. That is not bad for just over £16 risk. Add to that the fact that you will have greening options as the goals go in. The market reacts like no other to these teams scoring.
Using the cover 
For £1.50 you can virtually cover all your risk. Ok you will have to put something on the 0-3 when Real score first but that will not cost you too much. You will then be giving yourself nearly full cover on the 3 goal score line which the big teams hit a lot more often than not.

 

Example 2
Let’s look at a game in the Premier League where it could have a real chance of hitting, that being Sunderland v Man City. This season Sunderland have had 48% of games over 3.5, it seems that when there are 3 goals there tends to be 4. We all know Man City’s prowess in front of goal.
Lay under 3.5 goals for £15 at 1.54. Max risk £8.10
Lay under 4.5 goals for £10 at 1.24. Max risk £2.40
Game with 4 goals is £12.60 profit, game with 5 goals £25 profit. Plus remember your greening options. Believe it or not going in blind on all Sunderland games this season would have given you a profit.

 

Closing Options
This is very much in beta stage at the moment but I thought for once we could test this together. I see two main closing options.
Three goals first half / early 2nd half – Options are
1. Green the lot.
3. Take liabilities out of both and let it ride
3. Green the 4.5 and let the 3.5 ride
4. Green the 3.5 and let the 4.5 ride in the hope of another quick one

Four goals in the match
1. Green the lot
2. Let it ride, after all we can’t lose.
3. Take the liabilities out of the 4.5.

 

Use
This will get you in the game on ANY football match.  It is designed for matches where you can really get involved with a Suarez due to the price. The more I have been looking at it though I see no reason why you can’t use it on any game where you are thinking goals. Most of the time on games that have 3 goals you will be able to take a green. This is due to the fact that the cost of the 4.5 lay is so low. In addition it takes you into the 2nd half. I am guessing a bit here but I reckon that you have until 75 mins for 3 goals to be scored before you will no longer be able to take a profit.