Sports Trading UK
THE VILLA
This is fast becoming our stock correct score trade. It is something that we have been using privately now for a while and have just introduced it to the pro group. It’s simple to set up, simple to manage and fits a wide range of games. I am going to stake it to our normal £30 room stakes but you can choose whatever stakes you like. We use time decay and scalping to cover things, I do know however this is not everyone cup of tea so I have put an option with no time decay. The beauty of this is that if you get through 20 minutes without a goal you are in a very strong position.
Opening Bets
A dutch of 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2 in the correct score market.
Cover option 1 – A back bet of under 1.5 goals to cover your £30. So if the price of under 1.5 is 4.0 you would put £10 on it. I don’t do it as I can always cover the under 1.5 later if needs to be time decay.
Cover option 2 – A lay bet of under 2.5 goals to cover your £30 stake. So if the price of under 2.5 is 2.0 your lay would be for £30. I don’t do this as I will either use time decay or lay it later at a better price.
Cover options 3 – A back bet of 0-0 to give you £30 cover. This is highly versatile and will give you options later on. Kevin always manages to get some free money on the 0-0 by scalping it before the off, he is a master at this.
Notes – If you choose to use cover do one of them not all. At a push you can do the over 2.5 and the 0-0.
First Ten Minutes
Your time decay options are a lay of over 2.5 to get cover on the over 2.5 and or a back of under 1.5 to get cover on under 1.5. I tend to use the over 2.5 lay as I can easily get cover on the 1.5 later. How much you try to get on either is up to you personally I do not try to get full cover as I can add to the 2.5 later. This way if I do get caught my downside is not too bad.
Time decay warning
If you get caught on time decay your trade will be looking sick. You will lose around 3/5 of your stake on the over 2.5 lay and your correct scores will be showing a small red. This is where you have to make a decision; I would not blame anyone for taking the red and moving on. What I tend to do is leave the time decay open for another 5 to 10 mins and then take the reduced red. The correct scores I will leave open till at least half time only redding up after a 2nd goal. There is too much to write here ab out your options but I will explain them all in the chat room as they occur.
From 15 minutes
This is when I look to get my cover on the over 2.5. I do it by drip laying the under 2.5, what I mean by that is that I will split my stake into 3 parts and lay it as the price drops. In this I am taking a chance. Feel free to stick it all on in one go if you like.
What we are trying to achieve on the 2.5 market
We are trying to get at least £30 cover on the over 2.5 market. This will allow us always to be able to green up after 2 goals and give us the option to stay in the trade till then end if we see fit. Personally I like to get more than £30 cover.
Example
I have managed to scalp £10 cover on the over 2.5 market. On 20 mins the price of under 2.5 is 1.70. What I may choose to do is put 3 lays in for £10 at 1.7, 1.6 and 1.5. This will give me £40 cover at the cost of £18. I try not to spend more than £50 on the trade although it is highly unlikely I will ever use that due to the time decay options I have.
From 35 mins
If the score is 0-0 then it is time for Kev’s cover baby (aka half time orange). It is now time to get something on the under 1.5 goals. Remember though normal rules apply if the game is open then do not enter.
1 goal scored
Okay once you have all you cover set up one goal is like heaven, why I can hear you ask? It is because you are now covered on every other option and will have a big green on the 2 goals scores. If you have read my blog you know that only 11% of games are 0-0 so you have a very good chance of getting this. So now you can scalp the hell out of the current score. To be fair I prefer to leave it and then if needed use the late sub time decay strategy. However Kev uses this option very well, you don’t have to get a lot on it anything you so will cut down your overall liabilities. Always remember though that the vast majority of the time you will show an overall green, if you want it take it.
2 goals scored
So this is where it gets interesting. All of this is dependent on the time we see 2 goals.
1. Green up. Once you have your over 2.5 cover in place you will pretty much always have some sort of green figure.
2. Let it ride. As long as you have full cover in place you can no longer lose anything on the trade and a big green on whatever score it is. Not a bad place to be in.
3. Green to correct score and let the 2.5 ride. I would not really consider this unless my green on the correct scores is more than my red on the 2.5. However remember you can always green the 2.5 whenever you want or use time decay to reduce the risks as the right time.
4. Take some out of the current score. Let’s say it is 1-1 and you got on at 7.8, it is now trading at 2.4. You can lay some of that off leaving a smaller profit on 1-1 but cutting down your overall liabilities on the overall correct score market. Remember by now you should be fully covered on the over 2.5 market so this sets you up into a no loss position.
Why this trade works
Using our old friend the premier league we know that 74% of matches feature over 1.5 goals. The art of this is picking a game that we will not see a goal for the first 15 mins. That is where Kevin and his picks help you. I am not going to bore you with a heavy maths thing here.
Good luck
Villa Type No Scalp Trades
The Wells – Beta Version
Introduction
This is what I consider to be the best of the 3 no scalp villa trades I am going to write up. Quite simply if done properly you will have more profit on your target scores while still having cover although this cover will only be on the higher scores.
Match Selection
We use this where we want to give a good profit on the target villa scores but cover and the higher scores.
Staking and the Calculator
Although I am going to give you an idea of how you should be staking things relative to the size of bets you usually place it is very important to make your own decisions on the size of the cover bets you put in. Trading is always about making choices on how you see the game both before it and during it if you are watching. If nothing else this will teach you how to properly manage your position in the market. To help you out I have included a calculator that you can use before the match and during it to plot out what you want to do and help manage your position.
Point Betting
Some of you will be familiar with the point betting system for staking. I am not going to delve into it too much but for this a point is your normal stake on a Villa trade. To keep this easy and because it is still in Beta stage I am going to set my point size to £10.
Starting Bets
So on this like every other no scalp villa trades we will not be placing our target scores from the start. Please refer back to the overview document for reasons and listen to my ramblings on the videos
Dutch the 2-1 / 1-2 to show between a one and three point profit.
Example – I dutch 2-1 / 1-2 for £3.50 to give a £27 profit.
First Goal before 20 mins
So now comes your first decision of the trade, that being do we stay in or leave the trade?
Leaving the Trade
If you leave the trade you green / red the correct scores. Dependent on what time this happens you correct scores will show a £1 loss to £1 profit.
Staying in
This is my advice; one of the main reasons for this trade is that you will have your target scores and
the 2-1 / 1-2 all in profit.
Dutch 2-0 / 1-1 or 0-2 / 1-1 for a point.
Example – I dutch the scores for £10. The real beauty of this is that you will often get a better price
for dutching the 2 scores than you would have for dutching the 3 scores at the start.
Cover 3-0 or 0-3 - I would like to say this does not often happen but trust me you will be punching
the screen if you don’t do it and it finishes 3-0 / 0-3. You want between 50% and 100% of your total
stake used so far on it. You can leave it to wait for a better price if you see fit as the 3-0 / 0-3 will
quickly drift out.
Example – I back enough on the 3-0 for £1 to give me some cover.
Optional
Back the current score to give cover. You will be able to get this at a really good price so will not take
a lot away from your target scores or your cover scores.
No Goals 20 – 25 minutes.
Dutch normal villa scores for a point.
Example – I dutch 2-0 / 0-2 / 1-1 for £10.
Optional
Cover 0-3 / 3-0 – Same rules as above. You don’t have to do it now as you will get chance to do it
after a second goal. However doing it now will give you a great price and cost you peanuts to do.
Next Steps
You are now set up on the trade. No matter how you have staked it you should have a good profit on
2 goals and a profit, scratch on the 1-2 / 2-1
The 3.5 Cover
Once set up the 3.5 is your only real danger. I am not going to give you too much advice on this as its
part of trading to make your own mind up. No goals after 20 mins you can start to get the cover
whenever you like. One goal you will have to wait a bit. I won’t usually start to get involved until 3.5
goes below 1.5 but it can change dependant on the match. Use the calculator as this works out your
overall risk and profits on things. In the first example video you will see I was not interested until it
hit 1.1, in the end I did not bother at all. Remember at 0 goals you still have 3 more until the next
goal wipes you out.
Other scenarios
Second Goal
The second goal is not a big deal here as you have your cover in place. A lot of the time if it goes to
1-1 you will be able to close for a profit. If not your loss will not be a bad one.
Third Goal
I would always trade out at 3 goals unless I have 3.5 cover. The only exception for me would be if it’s
a late 3rd goal.
Final Thoughts
So this is the Wells pound for pound on no scalp trading this would be my go to trade
Villa Type No Scalp Trades
The Brolin – Beta Version
Introduction
This was going to be the last of the three different Villa Trades I was going to write up. In doing this I am trying to keep to the essence of the Villa Trade and have the most profit possible on the correct scores while giving cover without scalping. This one takes quite a fair bit of profit away from the scores but does give the most cover. At one point as was not even going to write it but I want to give you all the options, the good news is in tests it has performed better than I thought it would. This culminated in a live trade where the profit was pretty good compared to the risk. This will never be a high return of investment trade but if you use it properly it will not be a high risk trade either.
Match Selection
We use this where we can decide whether we want to cover the overs or the unders. Dependant on how you stake it there should never be a deal off loss on a game that features 0 or 1 goals or a game that features 3. Given that the Villa picks are all designed around hitting exactly 2 goals it gives you a reasonable chance of success. In addition this like the other no scalp trades will always give you a chance to trade out with a loss that is far less than what you have staked.
Staking and the Calculator
Although I am going to give you an idea of how you should be staking things relative to the size of bets you usually place it is very important to make your own decisions on the size of the cover bets you put in. Trading is always about making choices on how you see the game both before it and during it if you are watching. If nothing else this will teach you how to properly manage your position in the market. To help you out I have included a calculator that you can use before the match and during it to plot out what you want to do and help manage your position.
Point Betting
Some of you will be familiar with the point betting system for staking. I am not going to delve into it too much but for this a point is your normal stake on a Villa trade. To keep this easy and because it is still in Beta stage I am going to set my point size to £10.
Starting Bets
So on this like every other no scalp villa trades we will not be placing our target scores from the start. Please refer back to the overview document for reasons and listen to my ramblings on the videos
Back Under 1.5 – You want to show between a one and three point profit.
Example – Stake size is £10 I back under 1.5 for £10 to give a £22 profit.
Dutch the 2-1 / 1-2 to show between a one and three point profit.
Example – I dutch 2-1 / 1-2 for £5 to give a £27 profit.
First Goal before 20 mins
So now comes your first decision of the trade, that being do we stay in or leave the trade?
Leaving the Trade
If you leave the trade you red up the 1.5 and green / red the correct scores. Dependent on what time this happens you correct scores will show a £1 loss to £1 profit and your 1.5 could show as much as £8 red (based on my example below). This is not good but it is still less than what your target profit is for hitting a Villa.
Staying in
This is my advice; one of the main reasons for this trade is that you will have everything up to and including 3 goals for either a profit or a small loss. You will also have other chances later to exit the trade for a loss.
Dutch 2-0 / 1-1 or 0-2 / 1-1 for a point.
Example – I dutch the scores for £10. The real beauty of this is that you will often get a better price for dutching the 2 scores than you would have for dutching the 3 scores at the start.
Cover 3-0 or 0-3 - I would like to say this does not often happen but trust me you will be punching the screen if you don’t do it and it finishes 3-0 / 0-3. You want between 50% and 100% of your total stake used so far on it. You can leave it to wait for a better price if you see fit as the 3-0 / 0-3 will quickly drift out.
Example – I back enough on the 3-0 to cover my £25 in bets I already have in the market.
No Goals 20 – 25 minutes.
Dutch normal villa scores for a point.
Example – I dutch 2-0 / 0-2 / 1-1 for £10.
Optional
Cover 0-3 / 3-0 – Same rules as above. You don’t have to do it now as you will get chance to do it after a second goal. However doing it now will give you a great price and cost you peanuts to do. NB in the example video I forgot luckily I remembered at half time and is cost me the whole of 30p to cover it.
Next Steps
You are now set up on the trade. No matter how you have staked it you should have a good profit on 2 goals and a profit, scratch or reduced red on other scores under 4 goals. However there are more thoughts so read on.
The 3.5 Cover
Once set up the 3.5 is your only real danger. I am not going to give you too much advice on this as its part of trading to make your own mind up. No goals after 20 mins you can start to get the cover whenever you like. One goal you will have to wait a bit. I won’t usually start to get involved until 3.5 goes below 1.5 but it can change dependant on the match. Use the calculator as this works out your overall risk and profits on things. In the first example video you will see I was not interested until it hit 1.1, in the end I did not bother at all. Remember at 0 goals you still have 3 more until the next goal wipes you out.
Other scenarios
Second Goal
You will see on the Wells variation of this trade that the second goal is not a big problem as you will have a green. On this one however you do due to the 1.5 you placed at the start. This is now your biggest choice as to whether you stick with the trade or not. Having any 3.5 cover aids you greatly in this. I would not blame anyone for trading out at this point to preserve your bank; your loss will not be that big and should never exceed 1 point. You still have 1 more goal before you have to trade out. As ever check the calculator and look at your scenarios. Always remember that the market is working in your favour and the longer it stays the same score you will start to build up green. It is never that long before you can start getting cover on the 3.5 as that market does move quickly even at 2 goals.
Third Goal
I would always trade out at 3 goals unless I have 3.5 cover. The only exception for me would be if it’s a late 3rd goal. Dependant on time you could be looking at a £20 red.
Final Thoughts
So this is the Brolin. It is not as good as the Wells variation but does cover more scenarios that can arise. You do have to more careful with managing your position though as there is extra risk.
IMPORTANT NOTE – IF YOU ARE GOING TO TRY THIS USE VERY LOW STAKES. THE WELLS VARIATION IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD REALLY BE USING FOR A NO SCALP VILLA. THIS IS A BETA TRADE MARKED FOR FURTHER TESTING